US president Donald Trump thrust Greenland to the centre of worldwide politics when he proposed to shop for the huge, icebound island in the beginning of the 12 months. With the sector observing, Greenlandic electorate went to the polls on March 11 2025 and delivered a landslide victory for a birthday party that informed Trump, “We are not for sale.”
Greenland is an independent territory throughout the Kingdom of Denmark and its battle for independence is a big political battleground. Each the right-wing Demokraatit (Democrats), now the most important birthday party, and the socialist Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) that they not too long ago decimated are pro-independence. Alternatively, in addition they desire a slower independence procedure than the populist-nationalist Naleraq, which additionally did smartly within the election.
Whilst overseas observers could have had their consideration interested in Greenland by way of Trump, they shouldn’t glance away now. The end result of this election has made a fossil-fuelled long run for Greenland much more likely, simply when the escalating local weather disaster calls for an pressing international transition to renewable power.
A very powerful to Greenland’s long run is its base of monetary manufacturing. Greenland is estimated to have one of the international’s biggest untapped oil and gasoline sources.
Consistent with america Geological Survey, the basin off Greenland’s east coast on my own accommodates 31 billion barrels of oil similar and west Greenland about part of that. If this used to be all recoverable, Greenland may just change into some of the international’s biggest fossil gas manufacturers.
However those fossil fuels are extraordinarily tough to extract. The unwelcoming terrain – an infinite ice sheet on land, icebergs at sea – led successive fossil gas corporations to surrender their hunt for oil and gasoline. This present day, Greenland’s fossil fuels merely aren’t technically and commercially viable to get out of the bottom.
By contrast backdrop, IA handed a ban on all fossil gas exploration and extraction when it got here to energy after the 2021 election. It used to be justified by way of the unfavorable affects a fossil gas trade would have at the nation’s fragile atmosphere and the worldwide local weather, in addition to home fisheries, which general 98% of Greenland’s export price.
The ban suits inside of a world motion to chop no longer simply the usage of fossil fuels, but in addition their provide. The explanation is that extraction of fossil fuels will have to finish to forestall them from additional expanding local weather exchange. After the ban, Greenland joined a gaggle of like-minded international locations referred to as the Past Oil and Gasoline Alliance, that have all applied an identical law.
Different contributors come with Costa Rica, France and Sweden. Maximum spectacular is Denmark – the primary important oil and gasoline manufacturer to decide to a phaseout of fossil gas manufacturing, albeit by way of the past due 12 months of 2050. However, international efforts to finish fossil gas provide proceed to achieve tempo, even supposing primary manufacturers like america are getting into the wrong way.
No oil till after independence
Oil used to be no longer a big theme within the 2025 election marketing campaign. Certainly, a brand new birthday party proposing an impartial Greenland energised by way of fossil gas extraction referred to as Qulleq (actually “oil”, a connection with Inuit oil lamps) didn’t win a unmarried seat within the 31-seat parliament, the Inatsisartut.
Chairman of Demokraatit, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, celebrated his birthday party profitable 30% of the vote.
EPA-EFE/Mads Claus Rasmussen
In spite of Qulleq’s failure, the dramatically remade political panorama will permit important adjustments to the way forward for fossil gas manufacturing. 5 of six events enhance reconsidering the fossil gas ban, with most effective IA keeping up sturdy opposition. Greater than ever sooner than, oil will have to be understood in the case of the present independence sentiment.
Greenland’s sources aren’t owned by way of Denmark. This ended with law in 2009 and 2020 which granted the Greenlandic state complete regulate of the territory’s subsurface. Alternatively, as Denmark continues to pay an annual block grant to enhance the Greenlandic financial system, these days round €600 million (£503 million), Denmark is entitled to part of any earnings from herbal sources as much as the block grant price.
In keeping with pre-election statements by way of the events, there will likely be no parliamentary majority to start out oil exploration, let on my own extraction, for now. Naleraq and the centre-left Siumut are each open to pumping oil, however most effective as soon as Greenland is in a position to retain 100% of the revenues, because of this as soon as the Danish block grant is abolished following independence.
Confronted with the tough prospect of establishing a post-colonial country, fossil fuels are a tempting however bad method to protected the commercial basis of an impartial Greenland. But, within the lengthy shadow of Denmark’s colonial function, most effective the folk of Greenland can decide the way forward for the sector’s biggest island.
What occurs to Greenland’s oil and gasoline can have primary implications no longer only for the Greenlandic folks, however for the remainder of the sector. As some of the puts maximum prone to the results of the local weather disaster, Greenland is already feeling the results of a fossil-fuelled international. If the brand new executive chooses to make use of extraction as its trail to political and financial independence, it is going to have a devastating affect on all of the planet.
